Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Sorting the mess




Before sitting down to figure things out, I went to one of those online asset mix things that try to advise you on where you should keep your money. It spat this out at me.
I'm not sure what I really want to do with this, but I'll keep it in the back of my mind somewhere. Rather than try to stick to some ratios, I'm going to just take a sort of grocery shopping approach and pick up what seems to be a good idea at the moment.
At the moment, I'm kind of happy with this. 15% cash feels a tad high for my liking, but right now, my pie is rather small and equities generally like to move in board lots so having a high percentage of cash is unavoidable. Other than that, I guess it kind of represents my general sentiment.

I came up with a kind of different breakdown for things. It just works better for my thinking. What I've got here at the moment is the amount, then bellow that pre-tax and expected after tax income.
Starting from the top right, if I can't can't really count on it, I'm not going to think of it as being part of my main investments.
My loans also need some attention. Right now, they dictate my minimally acceptable rate of return. They're at a rate of prime+2.5, paid with pre-tax dollars. With a current prime rate of 5.25%, that's 7.75%. If I stick in the lowest tax bracket, that'll be 5.8125% and 5.27% if I slide up to the next bracket. For now, I think I'll assume I stay in the lowest tax bracket. Using marginal tax rates from http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/MarginalTaxCalculator/index.asp I'll need a return of 7.75% on ordinary income, 5.64% on dividends, and 6.64% on capital gains. Off hand, that feels a wee bit optimistic in the short term, and overall not too bad. Though I'm still young and I have little experience in these things, so I could find out the hard way that I'm wrong. For me, things will probably be a mix of dividends and unrealized capital gains. Granted, those aren't exactly too spendable. Just what sort of a return I'll need when splitting the two is spread sheet time. For what it's worth, if it were any type of non-tax deductible loan, I'd need an ordinary income return of 9.69%, which is pushing it.
A sense of macro economics helps or planning. Right now, I feel that I can count on the USA keeping interest rates pinned down for the rest of us. Then there's the slowing economy and lower inflation due to valuation on the dollar. There's also a bit of a sentiment that the dollar is too high and should be pushed lower to help struggling manufacturers. In the short run, I think trying to generate a better return is an idea that should be considered. In the longer term, if it starts becoming a better idea to pay off my loan first, I can always pay it off at a later date
I generally don't think of cash as being an investment. I kind of view it as a waiting spot for when I'm deciding on an investment. Generally, I've seen it recommended as allowing for flexibility to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. So it kind of sits outside for now.
Instead of having a conventional pie graph, my short term goal is to be able to make ends meet without needing to work in a rather minimalist sense. It would make me feel a lot more secure and give me the flexibility I want to explore a bit. Granted, I could just save money for that. However, I'd feel a lot more free and secure if I could get an income stream off my investments. For the ease of mental arithmetic, I've decided on an initial goal of $10,000/year total income plus enough cash to pay off my loans. I'll dub that mark, the red line. The minimum wage+vacation pay+stat holiday mark shall be referred to as the green line and I suppose somewhere in between should be a yellow line, so lets call that $10,000+loan payments = $12,710.
So, now the question is, since this is a give me some lee way to be unemployed for a while, do I want to presume that I am unemployed in this presently fictitious scenario? Do I want to calculate as if it's on top of something that's already pushed me into the lowest tax bracket? For that matter, do I want to calculate for other parts of Canada as well since I want to relocate. It's an arbitrary choice, and I'm split between calculating as if I'm in the lowest tax bracket already and calculating pre-tax. For now, I suppose lowest tax bracket works. I'm 3.5% towards the red line, and 2.75% towards the yellow line. I have trouble remembering where the green line is off-hand, but it's still a long ways to go for that, so I'll think about it when I'm a bit closer.

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