Friday, November 28, 2008

Markets

First Friday off in some time. It was nice being able to watch the markets again and boy did they put on a nice show. I gained more than two weeks of pay in today's trading session. Unfortunately, since I didn't know that I was going to have today off, I wasn't able to get any more money in. For some reason, I'm not fond of placing orders when I can't watch them. Anyway, I don't particularly have a plan for where I want to position money right now. Everything has been bouncing around so much, it's hard to tell what is a good deal right now. I'm told that this past week the tsx was up 11%, today makes it 17%. I wonder if that means that I can declare the last slump over.
Three options were tempting me lately
1) buy everything. The whole index was heavily discounted and it was hard to tell what was going to be a better deal at the time. I like index funds, so why not jump in heavy?
2) focus on financials. I watch the financials closely since I have the feeling that they're probably battered more than anything else. Whether or not that actually true or just a perception, I'm not sure.
3) Follow the original REIT plan. I still think that's probably a good approach to achieving my short term investment goals, which may or may not need to be redefined. Personally, I think the valuations have been tossed around enough that they should be re-evaluated and I should come up with a new allocation plan. I'm considering a simple equal-weight portfolio of a few favorites. My quirky index is down roughly 39%, compared to 32% for the tsx REIT index.
Anyway, got too much cash piling up, I want to get more money into the market sometime.

On another note, there's also the credit markets. The big BCE buy out deal fell through and I'm kind of half celebrating that. I'm not sure what ramifications it has for everyone right now. Somehow I don't think that the across the board drop in mortgage rates follow the fall through is entirely co-incidence though. Dropping that deal frees up a lot of credit that can be used by other people. There no telling what people would have done with money they got from the BCE buy out though. I'm sure some market would have been given a boost by that money, be it the real goods, equities, debt, commodities. Maybe this is one of those zero sum net gain moves.

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